Three assumptions you need to challenge today – and the danger of failing to track crucial signals of change
It’s been said so much that it feels like a cliché: we are living in unprecedented times. Every day, new headlines underscore just how much upheaval the world is experiencing – the economy is volatile, geopolitical relations are unstable, global trade is hanging in the balance, and societal norms are shifting quicker than ever before. Meanwhile, the values that have held sway among many consumers and brands in recent years – sustainability, gender equality and inclusion among them – seem to be falling out of favor. In this context, business leaders face the extraordinary challenge of navigating global disorder while trying to track and accurately interpret signals of change, ultimately harnessing these to plan strategically for the future.
Unfortunately, many companies fall into the trap of taking the headlines at face value, failing to appreciate the nuances and contradictions that exist alongside sensationalist, one-sided stories. By allowing the media exclusively to shape their worldview, these companies make sweeping assumptions about their consumers and the wider market landscape, leading to short-sighted and costly business decisions.
If you were to read the headlines today – rife with articles about DEI rollbacks, the death of sustainability, the loneliness epidemic, and more – you might hold these three assumptions to be true:
- Consumers are moving from we to me
- We are entering a post-progressive era
- Sustainability has lost its luster
Is this really an accurate picture of the world? Or are there hidden truths underneath these assumptions? Let’s delve into each of them to find out.
Consumers are moving from me to we… or are they?
Open a newspaper today and you’ll find at least one article about how people are becoming more individualistic, prioritizing their own needs over collective responsibility in a classic case of “main character syndrome”. We can see this at a macro level, of course, with the US administration under Trump pivoting away from global trade in the name of national interests. And among consumers, this shift away from the group mentality is not entirely their fault; the decline of third spaces alongside the omnipresence of social media have amplified feelings of loneliness, in many cases forcing people to turn inward. And so consumers are shaping their decisions around personal wellbeing – and, ultimately, self-interest. Just look at the booming self-care industry, worth an estimated $1.5 trillion according to McKinsey.
And yet – there are numerous signals indicating that people are taking creative steps to band together. We’ve seen the continued growth of platforms like Reddit and Discord, known for offering a sense belonging and deep engagement with likeminded peers. In the world of work, independent co-operatives are promoting fair pay and better working conditions. For example, 16,000 Uber and Lyft drivers have joined Drivers Co-op Colorado, which guarantees them 80% of each fare. And, turning back to geopolitical relations, America’s isolationist stance has arguably strengthened unity in some affected countries. In Canada, for instance, the phrase “elbows up” has become a viral social media rallying cry among those encouraging one another to stand together against the tariffs.
Our data also paints a more nuanced picture of the consumer mindset. One the one hand, the numbers indicate that people are eager to find common ground with one another. Despite polarization, a majority of consumers agree that they respect people with opposing political views. In GB, 64% agree while only 8% disagree.
However, a significant proportion also believe that mutual respect between citizens in their own country is poor. This highlights a disconnect in consumers’ minds, and an opportunity for brands to act as a bridge in a polarized world. Meanwhile, more than a third of people find it difficult to meet new people – again, an area where brands could step in with support.
To return to the assumption, let’s rewrite it in a way that’s closer to reality.
Current assumption: Consumers are moving from we to me
New truth: Consumers want to stand out without standing alone
We entering a post-progressive era… or are we?
Certainly, the news would have us believe that we are. Just look at rising anti-feminist sentiment among consumers and the cancellation of DEI programs at numerous big brands. Culturally, being an ally to marginalized groups seems to have lost its halo too. Not long ago, being “woke” was seen as cool and aspirational, but these days the term is more often used pejoratively, particularly by conservatives.
And yet – there are signals pointing to the fact that this is by no means a universal change. Commercially, we’ve seen brands like Apple, Costco and ELF Beauty among others doubling down on their DEI commitments. Consumers are also pushing back against DEI cancellations. For example, a petition demanding that Google reinstate Black History Month in its Calendar app gathered over 100,000 signatures within days.
Here at Foresight Factory, we can see in our latest wave of proprietary consumer data that progressivism isn’t going away any time soon. Globally, consumers are more likely to be positive than negative about cultural issues including feminism, diversity and inclusion policies, and increased rights for LGBT and trans people.
There are of course pockets of resistance – for example, young men are less positive about feminism than women and older men. In fact, 26% of GB men aged 16-29 say that feminism is negative for society, compared with only 9% of women of the same age, signalling a notable gender divide. It’s important to be aware of this divide, but overall, attitudes toward progressivism are positive.
We also know that when it comes to the role that consumers think brands should play in society, the fundamentals matter more than social causes. The number one thing that people care about is that brands provide good-quality products and services. Taking a stand on social issues is considered far less important.
Taking all of this into account, it’s fair to say that the assumption that we are entering a post-progressive era is just that – an assumption, and a false one at that. So what’s the truth?
Current assumption: We’re entering a post-progressive era
New truth: Resistance exists, but progressive values prevail
Sustainability has lost its luster… or has it?
At Foresight Factory, we’ve long talked about the “bumpy road to net zero” – i.e. the uncomfortable sacrifices associated with decarbonizing our economies. Recent headlines support the idea that sustainability targets are getting further out of reach. The Trump administration has pulled the US out of the Paris agreement, China is building record numbers of power plants, meat and dairy milk are making a comeback, and big brands are pushing back their net-zero targets or abandoning them altogether. This, combined with the discrepancy between intentions and actions seen at the consumer level, seems to suggest that people just don’t care about sustainability anymore.
And yet – we also see signals that consumers and organizations continue to prioritize net zero. The CBI has reported that the UK’s “net-zero economy” grew by 10% in 2024 – outpacing the wider economy. Brands such as Lidl Netherlands have made long-term, public commitments to sustainability. And while there’s been a backlash against Tesla due to its association with Elon Musk, demand for EVs remains. In fact, new EV registrations grew by a record 25% in 2024 and they are off to a strong start in 2025 too.
In the 25 years that we’ve been tracking attitudinal data in this area, we’ve seen consumers coalesce around the idea that climate change is indeed happening, with climate skepticism now very much a minority view. In GB for example, only 60% of consumers in 2010 agreed with the statement “climate change is definitely happening”. By 2022, this reached 82%. But there remains a notable lack of consensus about how we should respond, as well as a persistent resistance to making major lifestyle or financial sacrifices for the benefit of the planet.
Overall, our data shows that consumers are more positive than negative about net-zero targets, but it’s important to acknowledge that some groups feel differently. Older men, for example, stand out as being more negative about net zero. But while they may be down on the concept, they’re also the most enthusiastic adopters of green technology such as heat pumps. Importantly, this group – sometimes nicknamed “net-zero dads” – isn’t drawn to such innovation for ideological reasons but because it aligns with their interests in gaining expertise, becoming self-sufficient and cutting costs.
And so, let’s pick apart our original assumption and re-write it with this context in mind.
Current assumption: Sustainability has lost its luster
New truth: Sustainability 2.0 needs to center value, not virtue
Key takeaway
The pace of change is accelerating fast. For any brand or business leader looking to anticipate market dynamics and future-proof their strategies, staying on top of the news is important – but headlines don’t tell the entire story. Only by identifying critical signals, accurately sizing opportunities and planning for multiple future scenarios can you mitigate risk and guarantee that your business is optimized for any future.
For 20 years, we’ve helped global brands anchor their strategic decisions in data-backed evidence, giving them the confidence that they’re taking advantage of the right opportunities at the right time. If you’re interested in unlocking growth through strategic foresight, talk to us about adding a dynamic signal model to your business framework.
